Impact of the Middle East Crisis on Ocean Freight to Australia

The ongoing Middle East crisis is creating significant disruption across global ocean freight networks, with direct consequences for Australian importers and exporters. Security closures around key maritime corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea/Suez Canal region, have led major carriers to suspend transits, implement blank sailings or divert vessels via longer routes such as the Cape of Good Hope. These changes are adding considerable time to global voyage schedules and creating flow‑on delays across connected trade lanes, including those servicing Australia.

These disruptions are contributing to schedule instability, vessel bunching and equipment imbalances, which are beginning to affect Australian trade flows, even on services that do not directly transit the Middle East. Several major carriers have introduced emergency operating measures and applied conflict‑related surcharges, increasing the cost base for Australian-bound cargo. Longer routing, higher insurance exposure and operational uncertainty are also driving further rate volatility, with extended transit times likely to persist while the regional security environment remains unstable.

Overall, the crisis is contributing to upward pressure on freight costs, reduced schedule reliability and longer lead times, with Australian supply chains feeling the early effects through delays and tightening equipment availability.

General market update

What’s affecting supply and capacity?
There is not a great deal of new shipping capacity being added this year, with growth sitting at only around 3%, which is low compared with previous years. At the same time, ports around the world are busier and more congested than they’ve been in the past two years. Many ships are also still avoiding the Suez Canal due to safety concerns, which forces them to take longer routes. Some shipping lines are planning to return to the Suez route during 2026, which may gradually help ease delays.

Broader Trends We’re Seeing

• Container Pricing: After falling through late 2025 and dipping again in January, container prices are now expected to stabilise and gradually return to a typical range of USD $2,000 to $2,500 per unit.
• Market Conditions: Global shipping is adjusting to new trade patterns and changes in how countries source and move energy.
• Shipping Costs: Longer routes, political tensions and the need to avoid certain regions are influencing how much it costs to move goods.
• New Rules: Some governments are considering extra fees or requirements for ships owned by Chinese companies, which could affect costs and operations for the wider industry.