The latest insights into the International Freight Market

Into May, the global market remains weak, with both rate levels and demand for Oceania trade struggling to rise to all expected levels.

In terms of rates, nine carriers attempted to introduce General Rate Increases (GRI) at the beginning of April. This appeared to have no relationship to an increase in demand – more so, it seemed like a simple strategy to halt further rate declines. This was the latest of several attempts in April to lift rates. In most cases, the GRI did not go through, or for a small few, lasted a week before they were reversed, leaving only two successful GRIs since February. With larger vessels being redeployed from the Trans-Pacific to Oceania trade lanes, subsequently creating more space, the only signals we are seeing is further rate decline in May and potentially June. 

From a demand perspective, consumer confidence is currently low and continues to decline amid the prevailing trading environment. Similarly, the ongoing tariff announcement retaliation from the U.S. administration appears likely to further suppress container demand. Furthermore, the blank sailing schedule in the latter half of April indicated that output from China remains below both expected and historical levels. With all things considered, we do not anticipate the traditional peak season being brought forward to May, as was the case in 2024, widely attributed to the Red Sea diversions.

The FAK/SPOT rate market remains competitive, though it lacks reliability regarding space guarantees. Both customers and suppliers are advised to balance their positions between contract and SPOT rates in order to maintain contract viability as the peak season approaches.

Rob Baigent – General Manager, International Freight Management